Retail Sector Braces for Tough Holiday Season

32

⚠ The information on this website is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Consider seeking personal advice from a licensed adviser before acting on any information.

Over the last year and a half, the Australian retail sector has been navigating what might be described as a recession, mostly indicated by declining trade figures. This downturn presents significant obstacles for retailers as they head towards one of the busiest times of the year.

In a sobering analysis by Deloitte Access Economics, partner Dave Rumbens highlights that retail spending has consistently declined over six of the previous seven quarters. This decrease is compounded by high living costs, rising interest rates, and stagnant wage growth, leading to an overall grim economic outlook.

“We’ve seen retailers struggle significantly," said Rumbens. "Real retail turnover has dropped for eight consecutive quarters, and consumer spending has barely budged at a 1.3% increase over the past 12 months.”

Data reveals that the national real GDP growth up to March was just 1.1%, the lowest rate outside pandemic years since the 90s. According to Rumbens, this is a clear signal that Australia’s retail industry has been in a persistent recession for 18 months.

Despite the bleak outlook, this contraction in the retail sector is not surprising, given the weakening job market and the rising number of business insolvencies. “On a per capita basis, the reality is even harsher with real per capita retail spending shrinking by 2.5% compared to last year and further declining by 6.3% since June 2022,” explained Rumbens.

The "economic horror show" does not solely impact retailers; it reflects a broader economic malaise. With real consumer spending on retail down by 0.6% over the year to June, Rumbens predicts a difficult period ahead, though he remains hopeful that future years might bring some relief.

The Deloitte report underscores that new financial relief measures, including energy bill subsidies and tax cuts, might help increase disposable income and improve retail turnover. “While retailers should brace for continued challenges through the holiday season, we anticipate some gradual recovery," said Rumbens. Predictive figures show real retail turnover growth potentially rising from 0.3% in 2024 to 1.5% in both 2025 and 2026.

The recent monthly Consumer Price Index report for July shows inflation easing down to 3.5%, and underlying inflation dipping to 3.8%. Such signs might be initial indicators of economic stabilization, offering a glimmer of hope for Australian retailers.

Amidst this “new normal” of cautious and value-focused consumer behavior, the path to recovery might be slow, but not unattainable. Retailers who can adapt to the evolving economic landscape will be better positioned to overcome the tumultuous times still expected before a more stable future in 2025-26.

Published:Sunday, 1st Sep 2024
Source: Paige Estritori

Please Note: If this information affects you, seek advice from a licensed professional.

Share this news item:

Finance News

Clear

Australia's Marine Industry Surges to $229 Billion in 2023

01 Jan 2026: Paige Estritori

Australia's marine industry has achieved a remarkable economic milestone, with its output soaring to $229 billion in 2023. This 19% increase from previous years underscores the sector's robust growth and its pivotal role in the national economy. - read more

BIA Calls for Strategic Support in Australia's Marine Manufacturing Sector

24 Dec 2025: Paige Estritori

The Boating Industry Association Ltd (BIA) has recently called upon all levels of Australian government to provide strategic support to the nation's marine manufacturing and recreational boating sector. This appeal comes in response to a significant skills shortage that threatens the industry's substantial economic contributions. - read more

Austal Limited Bolsters U.S. Shipbuilding with $100 Million EFA Loan

24 Dec 2025: Paige Estritori

Austal Limited, a prominent Australian shipbuilder, has secured a $100 million loan from Export Finance Australia (EFA) to support the expansion of its shipbuilding operations in Mobile, Alabama. This funding is earmarked for the development of Austal USA's Final Assembly 2 (FA2) project, a significant step in enhancing the company's capacity to construct vessels for the U.S. Navy and Coast Guard. - read more

Promoting Safe and Responsible Boating: BIA's New Initiative

16 Dec 2025: Paige Estritori

The Boating Industry Association (BIA) has recently unveiled a significant initiative aimed at fostering responsible boat ownership across Australia and New Zealand. This campaign, launched during Safe Boating Week 2025, is a collaborative effort under the Australia New Zealand Safe Boating Education Group (ANZSBEG), which includes maritime regulators and peak bodies from both nations. - read more

Addressing Skills Shortages: BIA's Call for Government Action

16 Dec 2025: Paige Estritori

The Boating Industry Association Ltd (BIA) has issued a compelling appeal to all levels of Australian government, emphasizing the urgent need for strategic support to bolster the nation's esteemed marine manufacturing and recreational boating sector. This call to action arises amidst a significant skills shortage that poses a threat to the industry's economic vitality and growth potential. - read more

Celebrating Marine Innovation at the Sydney International On-Water Boat Show

16 Dec 2025: Paige Estritori

The 56th Sydney International On-Water Boat Show recently concluded after four dynamic days at Darling Harbour, drawing over 20,000 visitors and highlighting the latest advancements in marine design and technology. Presented by the Boating Industry Association (BIA) and Mulpha Events, the event featured more than 160 vessels from 120 leading international and Australian marine brands. - read more

Click for more Finance News