Retail Sector Braces for Tough Holiday Season

The information on this website is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Consider seeking personal advice from a licensed adviser before acting on any information.

Over the last year and a half, the Australian retail sector has been navigating what might be described as a recession, mostly indicated by declining trade figures. This downturn presents significant obstacles for retailers as they head towards one of the busiest times of the year.

In a sobering analysis by Deloitte Access Economics, partner Dave Rumbens highlights that retail spending has consistently declined over six of the previous seven quarters. This decrease is compounded by high living costs, rising interest rates, and stagnant wage growth, leading to an overall grim economic outlook.

“We’ve seen retailers struggle significantly," said Rumbens. "Real retail turnover has dropped for eight consecutive quarters, and consumer spending has barely budged at a 1.3% increase over the past 12 months.”

Data reveals that the national real GDP growth up to March was just 1.1%, the lowest rate outside pandemic years since the 90s. According to Rumbens, this is a clear signal that Australia’s retail industry has been in a persistent recession for 18 months.

Despite the bleak outlook, this contraction in the retail sector is not surprising, given the weakening job market and the rising number of business insolvencies. “On a per capita basis, the reality is even harsher with real per capita retail spending shrinking by 2.5% compared to last year and further declining by 6.3% since June 2022,” explained Rumbens.

The "economic horror show" does not solely impact retailers; it reflects a broader economic malaise. With real consumer spending on retail down by 0.6% over the year to June, Rumbens predicts a difficult period ahead, though he remains hopeful that future years might bring some relief.

The Deloitte report underscores that new financial relief measures, including energy bill subsidies and tax cuts, might help increase disposable income and improve retail turnover. “While retailers should brace for continued challenges through the holiday season, we anticipate some gradual recovery," said Rumbens. Predictive figures show real retail turnover growth potentially rising from 0.3% in 2024 to 1.5% in both 2025 and 2026.

The recent monthly Consumer Price Index report for July shows inflation easing down to 3.5%, and underlying inflation dipping to 3.8%. Such signs might be initial indicators of economic stabilization, offering a glimmer of hope for Australian retailers.

Amidst this “new normal” of cautious and value-focused consumer behavior, the path to recovery might be slow, but not unattainable. Retailers who can adapt to the evolving economic landscape will be better positioned to overcome the tumultuous times still expected before a more stable future in 2025-26.

Published:Sunday, 1st Sep 2024
Author: Paige Estritori

Please Note: We do not endorse any specific products or companies. Some content is sourced from third parties, including press releases, and may not be independently verified for accuracy or completeness.

Share this news item:

Finance News

Clear

Sea-Trex Growth Points to a Practical First-Boat Market

21 Jul 2026: Paige Estritori

Sea-Trex’s first year back in the Australian market is a timely signal for buyers who want boating to remain achievable, not just aspirational. Relaunched in July 2025 by Tim Stessl, the entry-level brand has now built a dealer network across Queensland, Western Australia and Victoria, with expansion into New South Wales and South Australia already underway. - read more

Why Perth’s 2026 Boat Show Matters for Buyers

07 Jul 2026: Paige Estritori

The 2026 Perth Boat Show is shaping as a useful barometer for Western Australia’s recreational boating appetite, with organisers positioning the event as one of the state’s strongest marine showcases in recent years. Scheduled for Friday 4 September to Sunday 6 September 2026 at the Perth Convention and Exhibition Centre, the show is expected to fill all six pavilions and bring together more than 90 exhibitors. - read more

Grand G980 Arrival Highlights Premium RIB Demand

30 Jun 2026: Paige Estritori

Grand Boats Australia’s Southern Hemisphere debut of the Grand G980 adds another notable option to the premium recreational boating market. The 10-metre rigid inflatable boat is positioned as a flagship adventure RIB, combining high-performance offshore capability with the kind of comfort features usually associated with larger cruisers. For Australian buyers, it is another sign that the local market remains interested in versatile boats that can handle family days, coastal exploring and overnight escapes. - read more

Mackay Boat Wreck Removal Sends a Timely Message to Owners

23 Jun 2026: Paige Estritori

Queensland’s latest waterway clean-up in the Mackay region is a useful reminder that boat ownership does not end at the purchase price. Announced on 22 June 2026, the Queensland Government has now removed more than 150 derelict vessels from local waterways under the Keeping Our Waterways Safe initiative, with recent work focused on the Pioneer River. - read more

Vessev's Electric Hydrofoiling Boats Poised to Revolutionise Swan River Transport

16 Jun 2026: Paige Estritori

Perth's Swan River is on the brink of a transportation transformation with the introduction of Vessev's electric hydrofoiling vessels. These innovative boats promise to deliver high-speed travel without the disruptive wakes that have long restricted river usage. - read more

ACCC Halts BRP's Sale of Telwater to Yamaha

16 Jun 2026: Paige Estritori

The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) has intervened to block the proposed sale of Telwater Pty Ltd., a leading Australian aluminium boat manufacturer, from BRP Inc. to Yamaha Motor Australia. This decision ensures that Telwater remains under BRP's ownership for the foreseeable future. - read more

Click for more Finance News