Shifting Tides: Diverging Paths for Consumers and Businesses in Australia

6

Westpac's latest consumer sentiment survey, released this Tuesday, indicates an escalating sense of pessimism among consumers. The bank's index, which reflects expectations for variable mortgage rates over the next twelve months, soared by 12.8% in July. This spike marks the highest monthly rise since the inception of the survey at the beginning of 2022.

"Consumer sentiment has remained entrenched in a deeply pessimistic zone for two years now," remarked Matthew Hassan, Senior Economist at Westpac.

Despite government incentives like the stage three tax cuts and fiscal support measures initiated from July 1, many households haven't experienced immediate financial relief due to banking payment cycles that often extend fortnightly or monthly. "Inflation pressures and the looming threat of more interest rate hikes continue to overshadow consumer sentiment," Hassan observed.

A staggering 60% of consumers anticipate a rise in mortgage rates over the next year. With the Reserve Bank's meeting on August 5-6 being deemed "live" for a potential interest rate hike to 4.6%, caution seems warranted. Added to this, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) expressed concerns in its June meeting minutes that returning inflation to the target range of 2-3% might take longer than desired.

Family finances appear to be a primary source of consumer stress, with the corresponding sub-index plummeting by 8.4% in July, almost entirely reversing the previous month's 9.7% gain. This underscores the fragile state of household budgets.

In contrast, the same day also saw the release of National Australia Bank's (NAB) business confidence data, which painted a more optimistic picture. Business confidence rose last month, buoyed by a broad-based uptick across various industries, marking the highest level seen this year. However, business conditions continued on a downward trajectory, following a peak in late 2022.

NAB's head of Australian economics, Gareth Spence, noted a significant decline in the employment index during the month. "Though it's just one month's reading, the employment index dropping below its long-term average might indicate weakening labour demand paralleling a broader economic slowdown," Spence commented.

Other economic indicators delivered mixed signals. Forward orders dipped deeply into negative territory, mainly dragged down by the retail and wholesale sectors. Labour cost growth eased to 1.8% on a quarterly equivalent after May's 2.3%. On the other hand, purchase cost growth declined from 1.7% to 1.3%.

Despite these contractions, Spence highlighted a positive turn. "Encouragingly, key price and cost growth metrics have rolled back their increases from the previous month," he said. Retail price growth remained steady but notably high, notwithstanding the sluggish outlook and dented industry confidence.

Overall, these recent survey results portray a nuanced economic landscape. As articulated by Commonwealth Bank of Australia's Head of Australian Economics, Gareth Aird, the combined insights from Westpac, NAB, and job advertisement data from Seek depict an Australian economy gradually softening, with disparate impacts on consumers and businesses alike.

Published:Wednesday, 10th Jul 2024
Source: Paige Estritori

Share this news item:

Finance News

RBA Highlights Housing Shortfall as Key Driver of Rental Crisis 17 Oct 2024: Paige Estritori In a fresh perspective on Australia's ongoing rental crisis, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has shed light on housing supply shortages as the primary cause, rather than the commonly blamed higher interest rates. - read more

Westpac Ends Cardless ATM Withdrawals: What This Means for Customers 11 Oct 2024: Paige Estritori Westpac Banking Corporation is making significant changes to its ATM services by eliminating the option for cardless cash withdrawals. This shift will require customers to carry a physical card to withdraw cash, starting at 8:00 PM AEST this Friday 11th October. - read more

Small Businesses in Australia: Navigating Turbulent Times 10 Oct 2024: Paige Estritori Amid the prevailing economic challenges, Australian small businesses are feeling the crunch as a wave of insolvencies underscores the depth of the issue. The construction and hospitality sectors are particularly vulnerable, with businesses seeking new strategies to stay afloat. - read more

Financial Worries Surge as Australians Face Economic Challenges 10 Oct 2024: Paige Estritori In a decade-long analysis, AMP’s recent Financial Wellness report uncovers a growing cloud of financial anxiety looming over Australian workers, with two-thirds expressing some level of financial distress. Particularly notable is the strain felt by those aged 55 to 59, where almost 40% report moderate to severe stress, highlighting growing concerns as retirement approaches. - read more

Australia Grapples with Prolonged Economic Slowdown 08 Oct 2024: Paige Estritori Australian citizens are currently navigating through an unprecedented economic phase, marked by the most prolonged recession per capita in the nation's history. This downturn has extended through six consecutive quarters of declining economic output, with a total of seven declines across the last eight quarters. - read more

Banks Under Fire for High Fees on Low-Income Accounts 07 Oct 2024: Paige Estritori A directive from Australian regulators is set to benefit nearly two million Australians, primarily from lower income groups, as major financial institutions were mandated to refund $28 million in excessive fees collected over the years. - read more