Commonwealth Bank Adjusts Rate Cut Timeline Amidst Labor Market Trends

7

⚠ The information on this website is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Consider seeking personal advice from a licensed adviser before acting on any information.

The financial community widely expects the RBA to keep the cash rate stable during this session, a forecast deemed straightforward in light of the recent federal budget. However, CBA's latest insights suggest the easing cycle-initially anticipated to alleviate strained mortgage holders-will be postponed due to prevailing uncertainties surrounding inflation forecasts.

Gareth Aird, CBA's head of Australian economics, indicated that recent labor market data shows little motivation for the RBA to alter its policy direction. According to Aird, the current state of the labor market, characterized by a "loosening" at essential levels, supports a prediction that the RBA will maintain the cash rate unchanged.

"Both trend unemployment and underemployment are experiencing a gradual upward trajectory," Aird stated in the latest CBA Economics update. "Work hours are declining, and job advertisements show a discernible downward trend."

Highlighting these labor market dynamics, Aird elaborated, "Our expectation for a more significant loosening in the labor market, which varies from the RBA’s forecasts, is a principal reason why we foresee the commencement of an easing cycle in late 2024. Yet, given the persistent challenges with underlying inflation and the shrinking period to November, the likelihood of a delayed start to the easing cycle is increasing."

The economic slowdown was further highlighted by the first-quarter GDP data, which grew by a mere 0.1%. Over six months, the annualized GDP growth pace reduced to 0.8%. The RBA's current forecast places the average unemployment rate at 4.0% over the second quarter, consistent with recent predictions.

Aird noted, "Despite the bank’s non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment estimated at 4.3%, there remains significant uncertainty regarding these projections." Additionally, RBA Governor Michelle Bullock opined that the federal government’s $300 energy bill rebate is unlikely to either significantly mitigate or exacerbate inflation levels.

Aird supported this view, referencing earlier CBA economic predictions that the rebates might subtract two-thirds of a percentage point from the third quarter’s Consumer Price Index (CPI). "While this impact is noteworthy, the RBA is more focused on the core inflation dynamics, which excludes the effects of energy rebates," he remarked.

"Our perspective is that the mechanical reduction in headline inflation for Q3, due to rebates, will potentially lower short-term inflation expectations for households and businesses, helping stabilize wage expectations over 2024 and 2025," Aird added.

The RBA's accompanying statement to its board decision is expected to maintain a neutral stance. Despite the fluctuating dynamics and economic signals, Aird emphasized that predicting the exact timing for the commencement of an easing cycle remains inherently uncertain.

Published:Saturday, 15th Jun 2024
Source: Paige Estritori

Please Note: If this information affects you, seek advice from a licensed professional.

Share this news item:

Finance News

Clear

Australia's Marine Industry Surges to $229 Billion in 2023

14 Nov 2025: Paige Estritori

Australia's marine industry has achieved a remarkable economic milestone, with its output soaring to $229 billion in 2023. This 19% increase from previous years underscores the sector's robust growth and its pivotal role in the national economy. - read more

South Australia's Coastal Waters Affected by Prolonged Algal Bloom

14 Nov 2025: Paige Estritori

Since March 2025, South Australia's coastal regions have been grappling with a harmful algal bloom (HAB) that has had profound effects on the marine environment and associated industries. This event has led to significant fish kills, adversely impacting the fishing and aquaculture sectors, as well as deterring beachgoers and affecting tourism operators along the affected coasts. - read more

Marinex Underwriting Launches to Address Australia's Marine Insurance Needs

14 Nov 2025: Paige Estritori

Rhodian Group, an incubator of underwriting agencies in Australia, has announced the launch of its third agency, Marinex Underwriting. Backed by global specialty insurance distributor Amwins, Marinex is a shared equity marine underwriting agency co-founded by national relationship manager Janelle Karnib, CEO Chris Kelly, and Ainsley Smith. - read more

Queensland Government Invests in Marine Industry Workforce

06 Nov 2025: Paige Estritori

The Queensland Government has recently partnered with the Boating Industry Association (BIA) to significantly enhance the Marine Jobs program throughout the state. This collaboration is set to provide a substantial boost to employment opportunities within Queensland's marine sector, which boasts the highest concentration of marine businesses in Australia. - read more

BIA and AFTA Collaborate to Enhance Boating and Fishing Industries

06 Nov 2025: Paige Estritori

In a significant move for Australia's outdoor recreation sector, the Boating Industry Association (BIA) and the Australian Fishing Trade Association (AFTA) have formalised an agreement to collaborate more closely. This partnership is designed to benefit their combined membership base and bolster support for boat-based fishing across the nation. - read more

South Australia's Algal Bloom: A Challenge for the Marine Industry

29 Oct 2025: Paige Estritori

Since March 2025, South Australia's coastal regions have been grappling with a harmful algal bloom (HAB) that has had profound effects on the marine environment and associated industries. This event has led to significant fish kills, adversely impacting the fishing and aquaculture sectors, as well as deterring beachgoers and affecting tourism operators along the affected coasts. - read more

Click for more Finance News